COVERAGE THROUGH 2026-07-26  AWAITING
EVENTS 32 · 2026-W30
GAMES 3198
WEEKLY · 32 events · 3198 games
ABOUT THIS DATA

Every stat on this dashboard reads the Archive’s own first-party tournament pull from Best Coast Pairings — editorially curated by the Editor before commit, limited to 5+ round events, and faction-anonymous (no player names appear in any published output). It is the Archive computing on public event records, not a republished third-party win-rate table. Win rate is wins / (wins + losses + draws); the temporal toggle above slices the same pull by week, current patch, or edition lifetime.

HOW TO READ QUANTUM

Quantum is the Archive’s measurement layer — what the tournament data says about the game, before anyone interprets it. Every stat tab reads first-party Best Coast Pairings tournament data (5+ round events, faction-anonymous), sliced by the temporal window you pick above.

The dashboard measures — that is the Archivist. Interpretation lives on Awakenings — that is the Editor. Weigh them as separate acts.

  • Faction Performance (this tab) — per-faction win rate (Wilson 95% CI bar — wider band = smaller sample), field share, round attrition. Δ movement lives in the headline strip.
  • Matchups — the full 28×28 faction-vs-faction grid, heat-striped against each row faction’s own win rate.
  • Detail — margin profile, representation, consistency, round attrition tables.
  • Disposition — the 11th-edition list-building posture surfaces (populate as first-party 11e data lands).
  • ELO — the cumulative player rating ladder (not windowed — the temporal toggle doesn’t apply).
  • Tier List ↗ — the headline verdict: the Strength Index.
VITAL SIGNS · COLUMN REFRESH STATUS
PERFORMANCE
2026-07-26
FRESH · 2D AGO
PRACTICE
2026-06-27
FRESH · 31D AGO
DIGEST
2026-07-28
FRESH · 0D AGO
TOP WIN RATE
61.7% Deathwatch
z +2.2 · CI [47.4–74.2]
STEEPEST CLIMB
+21.7pp Deathwatch
w/w · Adeptus Mechanicus +20.4
SHARPEST DROP
-15.4pp Black Templars
w/w · Genestealer Cults -14.9
LATE-GAME LEADER
+34.7pp Space Marines
round Δ · climbs late
HIDDEN GEM
Deathwatch 61.7%
N=48 · 0.8% field share

FACTION PERFORMANCE

PER-FACTION WIN RATE · WILSON 95% CI (REAL WR, DRAWS EXCLUDED) · ACTIVE WINDOW · SORTABLE
FORMAT:
STAT:
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI VP DIFF TOP-3 N
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI VP DIFF TOP-3 N

COVERAGE

RECENT THIRD-PARTY WRITEUPS · THROUGH 2026-07-26
2026-07-25 ARTICLE

Competitive Innovations in 11th: Mr. Thraka Goes to Washington pt.3

Goonhammer Competitive Innovations · James "One_Wing" Grover

2026-07-25 VIDEO

The First 11th Ed Balance Update - Our Initial Reaction | 40K Fireside

40K Fireside · 40K Fireside

2026-07-24 ARTICLE

Competitive Innovations in 11th: Mr. Thraka Goes to Washington pt.2

Goonhammer Competitive Innovations · Lowest of Men

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

First-party BCP tournament data — 5+ round events, faction-anonymous. Cells show the row faction’s win rate vs the column faction.

Adepta Sororitas Adeptus Custodes Adeptus Mechanicus Aeldari Astra Militarum Black Templars Blood Angels Chaos Daemons Chaos Knights Chaos Space Marines Dark Angels Death Guard Deathwatch Drukhari Emperor’s Children Genestealer Cults Grey Knights Imperial Agents Imperial Knights Leagues of Votann Necrons Orks Space Marines Space Wolves Thousand Sons Tyranids T’au Empire World Eaters
Adepta Sororitas   36 20 3 2 2 4 3 3 50 4 67 2 63 40 3 3   62 22 13 27 25 2 40 33 43 50
Adeptus Custodes 55 13 33 65 69 60 73 38 47 46 44 53 60 55 50 50 56 2 56 63 52 48 52 38 35 44 53 25
Adeptus Mechanicus 40 63 3 2 86 2 4 40 40 50 60 83 1 2 50 80 4 1 62 60 27 38 25 3 17 50 54 40
Aeldari 3 35 2 2 70 1 0 4 78 40 33 33 2 0 50 3 20 1 33 67 50 38 55 3 33 78 46 67
Astra Militarum 2 31 14 30 3 1 40 42 0 40 89 45 2 4 50 4 4 1 38 80 21 27 47 40 2 36 40 14
Black Templars 2 40 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 43 43       3 1     3 3 2 20 2     56 1 2
Blood Angels 4 27 4 100 60 1 3 40 42 64 50 4   4 40 2 63   44 3 36 60 55 4 29 53 75 60
Chaos Daemons 3 62 60 4 58 2 60 6 3 33 4 30 2 50 43 2 40   60 43 50 31 43 67 40 75 83 64
Chaos Knights 3 47 60 22 83 2 58 3 2 4 2 17 1 2 14 2 4 1 4 4 22 20 69 2 25 63 25 33
Chaos Space Marines 38 54 44 60 60 43 18 67 4 2 30 38 1 4 44 1 50 1 45 50 57 45 45 50 50 25 50 20
Dark Angels 4 50 40 67 11 57 25 4 2 70 4 33 1 60 38 3 83   38 50 29 53 40 4 3 63 27 3
Death Guard 33 41 17 50 36   4 60 67 46 44 3 1 57 33 29 42 1 18 43 36 15 47 40 64 8 80 18
Deathwatch 2 40 1 2 2     2 1 1 1 1   2 1   3   2 2 40 3 3 2 2   2 1
Drukhari 38 36 2 100 4   4 38 2 4 40 14 2 3 50 2 2   50 4 33 67 63 3 14 20 4 2
Emperor’s Children 60 42 50 50 50 3 60 57 86 56 62 67 1 33 14 2 36   50 38 48 28 44 1 50 63 64 73
Genestealer Cults 3 50 20 3 4 1 2 2 2 1 3 57   2 2   4   50 4 0 50 10 3 2 29 33 33
Grey Knights 3 44 4 80 4   13 20 4 17 0 42 3 2 55 4 2 1 67 43 44 10 27 67 50 60 33 80
Imperial Agents   2 1 1 1       1 1   1         1   1   1 1 1         2
Imperial Knights 38 36 38 67 63 3 44 40 4 55 50 82 2 40 50 33 33 1 9 63 53 30 44 71 41 63 53 82
Leagues of Votann 56 37 20 33 20 3 3 43 4 38 50 57 2 4 62 4 43   38 8 43 64 50 50 18 50 62 36
Necrons 63 34 73 50 64 2 64 50 67 35 64 57 60 67 52 83 44 1 47 57 12 21 53 33 64 48 50 33
Orks 73 41 63 62 53 80 20 56 73 55 40 85 3 25 63 50 60 1 70 36 75 13 67 44 53 27 35 50
Space Marines 50 42 63 27 53 2 45 57 31 36 60 53 3 25 56 90 73 1 56 44 47 28 9 63 50 40 38 42
Space Wolves 2 50 3 3 60   4 33 2 38 4 60 2 3 1 3 33   29 25 67 33 38 1 80 29 50 80
Thousand Sons 60 65 83 44 2   71 50 63 50 3 36 2 57 40 2 50   59 64 36 37 42 20 1 62 55 3
Tyranids 50 48 40 11 57 44 40 25 25 69 38 92   80 38 57 20   32 42 48 67 52 71 23 4 44 18
T’au Empire 43 37 46 46 40 1 13 17 50 42 64 20 2 4 27 67 50   47 23 44 57 57 50 27 56 5 58
World Eaters 38 67 60 33 86 2 30 29 33 60 3 82 1 2 18 67 0 2 18 45 50 50 58 20 3 82 42 4
PER-EVENT AUDIT · 32 EVENTS
  • Waterdeep GT 5ta Edición July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • BOISE CUP 40k 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • War in the Wastelands GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • The Wyldlands Burns GT - Summer 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • ForgeFire Open 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Northern Maelstrom 2026 Warhammer 40,000 Grand Tournament July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Fun-n-Games '26 Summer GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Red Dragon Presents: Summer 5's (40k 5 Player Teams Event - July 25/26 2026) July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Chimera Gaming Warhammer 40K Grand Tournament - July 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Warzone Dragoon GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • BrewHammer GT 9 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Defiant To The Last II - Warhammer 40,000 Teams Event July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Hobby Henchmen July GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • The 2026 Summer Swordwind GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • 40k Brawl - July GT 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Whitby 40K Summer GT July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Protect ya Neck July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Battle of the East July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • WH40k event - Boltgun Tactics GT July 2026, hosted by Battleground UK July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Burn & Learn Vol.17 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Brighton 40k GT XVI July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Rearguard Renegades Summer Open July '26 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Summer tournament July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Summer clash 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • WH40k Ropecon GT 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Winter Clash 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • La Senda del Iberian July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Malaysia National Finals @ Xunobi Studio 2026 GW Golden Ticket Finals WH40k 2000pts July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Gladiator Gaming Teams July July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Tactical Chilli Championship 2026 July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • 40k All Ireland Team Championship July 26, 2026 · players · rounds
  • FER GETÉ Summer Edition July 25, 2026 · players · rounds

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

FACTION GAMES AVG MARGIN (WIN) AVG MARGIN (LOSS) BLOWOUT % CLOSENESS %
Adepta Sororitas 151 21.1 20.5 6% 39.7%
Adeptus Custodes 458 22.1 20.9 8.5% 32.1%
Adeptus Mechanicus 197 22.2 23.8 10.7% 31.5%
Aeldari 187 17.5 21.5 3.2% 38.5%
Astra Militarum 207 25.5 29.3 8.7% 26.6%
Black Templars 63 31 31 12.7% 22.2%
Blood Angels 186 27.4 27.8 12.4% 29%
Chaos Daemons 214 23.3 17.7 11.2% 34.1%
Chaos Knights 163 25.4 22.8 8.6% 28.8%
Chaos Space Marines 265 21 24 6.4% 27.6%
Dark Angels 208 30.9 24.6 14.9% 23.1%
Death Guard 235 19.9 20.3 4.7% 35.3%
Deathwatch 48 29.1 20.9 14.6% 25%
Drukhari 144 17.1 18.1 4.9% 43.1%
Emperor’s Children 288 26.4 23.2 12.2% 27.1%
Genestealer Cults 107 18.6 18.8 5.6% 33.6%
Grey Knights 169 22.7 24.4 7.7% 37.9%
Imperial Agents 15 24.2 16.7 6.7% 26.7%
Imperial Knights 310 25.1 25.1 11% 26.1%
Leagues of Votann 235 21.3 20.4 8.1% 31.5%
Necrons 378 22.8 23.6 10.1% 31.2%
Orks 405 27.6 26.1 15.3% 27.9%
Space Marines 410 24.8 27.1 9.8% 26.1%
Space Wolves 131 19.7 33.4 5.3% 29%
T’au Empire 294 24.3 24.5 8.8% 31.6%
Thousand Sons 225 23.5 24.5 9.8% 27.6%
Tyranids 320 24 22 10.3% 34.1%
World Eaters 200 23.9 25.7 8% 25%

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

FACTION POP SHARE TOP-CUT SHARE OVERREP
Adepta Sororitas 2.43% 1.33% 0.55x
Adeptus Custodes 7.37% 9.33% 1.27x
Adeptus Mechanicus 3.17% 2.67% 0.84x
Aeldari 3.01% 1.33% 0.44x
Astra Militarum 3.33% 1.33% 0.4x
Black Templars 1.01% 0%
Blood Angels 2.99% 2.67% 0.89x
Chaos Daemons 3.44% 2.67% 0.77x
Chaos Knights 2.62% 1.33% 0.51x
Chaos Space Marines 4.27% 2.67% 0.63x
Dark Angels 3.35% 9.33% 2.79x
Death Guard 3.78% 1.33% 0.35x
Deathwatch 0.77% 2.67% 3.45x
Drukhari 2.32% 4% 1.73x
Emperor’s Children 4.64% 4% 0.86x
Genestealer Cults 1.72% 1.33% 0.77x
Grey Knights 2.72% 1.33% 0.49x
Imperial Agents 0.24% 0%
Imperial Knights 4.99% 0%
Leagues of Votann 3.78% 2.67% 0.71x
Necrons 6.08% 8% 1.31x
Orks 6.52% 16% 2.45x
Space Marines 6.6% 8% 1.21x
Space Wolves 2.11% 2.67% 1.26x
T’au Empire 4.73% 4% 0.85x
Thousand Sons 3.62% 5.33% 1.47x
Tyranids 5.15% 4% 0.78x
World Eaters 3.22% 0%

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

FACTION EVENTS CROSS-EVENT σ VP SCORE σ AVG MIRROR MARGIN MIRROR N
Adepta Sororitas 18 0.224 36.6 0
Adeptus Custodes 28 0.157 36.4 ±27.2 VP 13
Adeptus Mechanicus 20 0.174 36 ±28.3 VP 3
Aeldari 18 0.204 37.5 ±14 VP 2
Astra Militarum 24 0.171 33.9 ±13 VP 3
Black Templars 10 0.208 33.5 1
Blood Angels 21 0.169 34.9 ±37.7 VP 3
Chaos Daemons 24 0.198 37.2 ±17.8 VP 6
Chaos Knights 18 0.202 37.1 ±17 VP 2
Chaos Space Marines 25 0.207 35.7 ±12 VP 2
Dark Angels 19 0.234 38.5 ±39.3 VP 4
Death Guard 22 0.204 36.3 ±3.3 VP 3
Deathwatch 9 0.254 36.6 0
Drukhari 17 0.23 37.6 ±28.7 VP 3
Emperor’s Children 26 0.156 37.9 ±24.9 VP 14
Genestealer Cults 14 0.186 36.2 0
Grey Knights 16 0.189 36.7 ±35.5 VP 2
Imperial Agents 3 0.283 40.2 0
Imperial Knights 22 0.108 36.6 ±16.3 VP 9
Leagues of Votann 20 0.144 37 ±16 VP 8
Necrons 25 0.1 35.2 ±15 VP 12
Orks 25 0.163 36 ±15.5 VP 13
Space Marines 28 0.207 34.3 ±13.4 VP 9
Space Wolves 16 0.179 32.5 1
T’au Empire 23 0.217 36.7 ±29 VP 5
Thousand Sons 22 0.186 36.1 1
Tyranids 22 0.214 36 ±5.8 VP 4
World Eaters 21 0.158 35.7 ±38.5 VP 4

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

FACTION GAMES R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Δ ROUND
Adepta Sororitas 151 37% 53.6% 50% 42.3% 46.2% 20% +9.1 pp
Adeptus Custodes 458 49.5% 51.7% 52.4% 62% 56.6% 14.3% +7.2 pp
Adeptus Mechanicus 197 60% 47.4% 57.1% 40.5% 60% 60% +0 pp
Aeldari 187 52.8% 35.1% 41.2% 61.8% 48.4% 40% -4.4 pp
Astra Militarum 207 45% 40% 35.1% 47.2% 41.2% 28.6% -3.8 pp
Black Templars 63 33.3% 23.1% 27.3% 50% 50% 0% +16.7 pp
Blood Angels 186 64.7% 57.6% 45.5% 41.7% 58.8% 40% -5.9 pp
Chaos Daemons 214 58.5% 56.4% 55% 46.5% 51.3% 0% -7.2 pp
Chaos Knights 163 41.9% 22.6% 44.8% 44.8% 50% 0% +8.1 pp
Chaos Space Marines 265 52.8% 51.1% 53.3% 46.9% 37.5% 33.3% -15.3 pp
Dark Angels 208 45% 41.7% 53.9% 47.4% 47.4% 100% +2.4 pp
Death Guard 235 43.5% 43.2% 36.4% 44.4% 38.6% 20% -4.8 pp
Deathwatch 48 75% 80% 20% 62.5% 70% 100% -5 pp
Drukhari 144 41.7% 47.8% 53.9% 55.6% 46.4% 100% +4.8 pp
Emperor’s Children 288 58.5% 57.6% 55.8% 45.8% 48.2% 0% -10.3 pp
Genestealer Cults 107 30% 42.9% 45% 47.4% 31.6% 66.7% +1.6 pp
Grey Knights 169 60% 53.3% 37.9% 58.1% 26.7% 75% -33.3 pp
Imperial Agents 15 0% 33.3% 66.7% 66.7% 0% 100%
Imperial Knights 310 46.9% 54.2% 46.6% 50% 50.9% 66.7% +4 pp
Leagues of Votann 235 57.1% 48.7% 60.5% 43.9% 46.7% 60% -10.5 pp
Necrons 378 54.3% 55.3% 45.1% 53% 59.2% 0% +4.9 pp
Orks 405 60.5% 61.6% 55% 61.3% 52.2% 60% -8.3 pp
Space Marines 410 48.7% 45.1% 47.4% 47.1% 53.4% 83.3% +34.7 pp
Space Wolves 131 41.7% 52.2% 41.7% 56% 50% 50% +8.3 pp
T’au Empire 294 46.7% 50% 50% 51% 37.3% 75% -9.4 pp
Thousand Sons 225 52.4% 55.8% 60% 47.4% 63.9% 40% +11.5 pp
Tyranids 320 37.7% 52.5% 57.6% 42.1% 54.2% 50% +16.5 pp
World Eaters 200 47.4% 41.2% 52.6% 54.3% 61.1% 42.9% +13.7 pp
PROTOCOL · INTERACTIVE TOOL

DISPOSITION EXPLORER

Pivot the faction → detachment → Force Disposition data four ways — which posture wins for a build, which builds win a posture, and the army-agnostic disposition×disposition and disposition-agnostic build×build matchups. Every view carries a plain-language verdict that is gated on the sample: a leader is named only when its 95% interval clears the rest, never by sorting and crowning.

Faction×detachment×disposition is roughly 1,300 cells; even a healthy season spreads only a few thousand games across them. This tool is built so the uncertainty is the most visible thing on screen — it refuses to declare findings the sample can’t support. On reading these limits, see What the Numbers Can Bear and Six Bins.

Lens
Format
Thin cells
30
Sort by
 

Win rates are the Archive’s own first-party measurement from the weekly tournament pull — not republished aggregator tables. Verdicts come from confidence-interval separation only; no p-values. The build×disposition data (the BUILD → DISP and DISP → BUILD lenses) begins with the first post-11th-edition pull on Friday 3 July 2026.

TWO-ELO RATING SYSTEM · PROVISIONAL
ELO ratings are provisional. Built from 5 tournament pulls since the current dataslate — 4276 of 4423 players are still inside their provisional rating period. Read the ordering as early-stage, not a settled skill ladder; ratings stabilise as pulls accumulate. Running raw and performance-adjusted — the ladder is a two-rating system on first-party tournament results.
RAW Performance against other players, regardless of faction.
PERF-ADJ Net of the factions’ observed strength this season — the Performance composite.
Faction premium = adjusted − raw. Positive (adjusted above raw): the player is exceeding what their faction predicts — a skill signal. Negative: the faction is doing the lifting. This is the “is it the player or the army?” read.

BIGGEST SKILL PREMIUM

PERF-ADJ FURTHEST ABOVE RAW · THE GENUINE SKILL SIGNAL

    BIGGEST FACTION LIFT

    PERF-ADJ FURTHEST BELOW RAW · FACTION DOING THE LIFTING

      TOP-50 LEADERBOARD · EDITION 11E

      CLICK A RATING HEADER TO SORT · CLICK A NAME FOR ITS RATING NEIGHBORS · DEFAULT: RAW ↓
      # PLAYER RAW PERF-ADJ P-PREMIUM G RECENT FACTIONS