COVERAGE THROUGH 2026-09-09  AWAITING
EVENTS 20 · 2026-W36
GAMES 1810
WEEKLY · 20 events · 1810 games
ABOUT THIS DATA

Every stat on this dashboard reads the Archive’s own first-party tournament pull from Best Coast Pairings — editorially curated by the Editor before commit, limited to 5+ round events, and faction-anonymous (no player names appear in any published output). It is the Archive computing on public event records, not a republished third-party win-rate table. Win rate is wins / (wins + losses + draws); the temporal toggle above slices the same pull by week, current patch, or edition lifetime.

HOW TO READ QUANTUM

Quantum is the Archive’s measurement layer — what the tournament data says about the game, before anyone interprets it. Every stat tab reads first-party Best Coast Pairings tournament data (5+ round events, faction-anonymous), sliced by the temporal window you pick above.

The dashboard measures — that is the Archivist. Interpretation lives on Awakenings — that is the Editor. Weigh them as separate acts.

  • Faction Performance (this tab) — per-faction win rate (Wilson 95% CI bar — wider band = smaller sample), field share, round attrition. Δ movement lives in the headline strip.
  • Matchups — the full 28×28 faction-vs-faction grid, heat-striped against each row faction’s own win rate.
  • Detail — margin profile, representation, consistency, round attrition tables.
  • Disposition — the 11th-edition list-building posture surfaces (populate as first-party 11e data lands).
  • ELO — the cumulative player rating ladder (not windowed — the temporal toggle doesn’t apply).
  • Tier List ↗ — the headline verdict: the Strength Index.
VITAL SIGNS · COLUMN REFRESH STATUS
PERFORMANCE
2026-09-06
FRESH · 4D AGO
PRACTICE
2026-06-27
AGING · 75D AGO
DIGEST
2026-09-10
FRESH · 0D AGO
TOP WIN RATE
63.4% Genestealer Cults
z +2.48 · CI [51.8–73.6]
STEEPEST CLIMB
+22.7pp Imperial Agents
w/w · Genestealer Cults +15.9
SHARPEST DROP
-19.7pp Aeldari
w/w · Emperor’s Children -10.5
LATE-GAME LEADER
+31.7pp Aeldari
round Δ · climbs late
HIDDEN GEM
Genestealer Cults 63.4%
N=72 · 2.1% field share

FACTION PERFORMANCE

PER-FACTION WIN RATE · WILSON 95% CI (REAL WR, DRAWS EXCLUDED) · ACTIVE WINDOW · SORTABLE
FORMAT:
STAT:
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI VP DIFF TOP-3 N
# FACTION WIN RATE · 95% CI VP DIFF TOP-3 N

COVERAGE

RECENT THIRD-PARTY WRITEUPS · THROUGH 2026-09-09
2026-09-09 ARTICLE

Competitive Innovations in 11th: Mufasa Maxxing pt.1

Goonhammer Competitive Innovations · James "One_Wing" Grover

2026-09-09 VIDEO

Chaos Daemons vs Leagues of Votann Competitive Battle Report

Art of War 40k · Art of War 40k

2026-09-09 VIDEO

The Biggest 8 man Warhammer 40,000 team event in America

Art of War 40k · Art of War 40k

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

First-party BCP tournament data — 5+ round events, faction-anonymous. Cells show the row faction’s win rate vs the column faction.

Adepta Sororitas Adeptus Custodes Adeptus Mechanicus Aeldari Astra Militarum Black Templars Blood Angels Chaos Daemons Chaos Knights Chaos Space Marines Dark Angels Death Guard Deathwatch Drukhari Emperor’s Children Genestealer Cults Grey Knights Imperial Agents Imperial Knights Leagues of Votann Necrons Orks Space Marines Space Wolves Thousand Sons Tyranids T’au Empire World Eaters
Adepta Sororitas 1 83 2 1 4 1 50 1 2 3 4 80 1 2 60 3 1 1 2 4 71 3 25 3 100 1 43 1
Adeptus Custodes 17 11 86 83 70   63 36 14 67 69 45 4 2 79 57 20   80 46 47 53 40 40 57 64 27 50
Adeptus Mechanicus 2 14 1 2 2 1 4 3 2 1 43 2     2 3 1     4 4 4 20 3 67 56 30 4
Aeldari 1 17 2 1 60   3 2 3 4 2 4 2 4 2 1 1   2 2 4 4 4 1 2 2 2 4
Astra Militarum 4 30 2 40 2 2   4 4 2 20 4 1 3 33 2 4   2 4 0 60 63 3   33 67 2
Black Templars 1   1   2                   1 1 1     2 1   4     2 2 1
Blood Angels 50 38 4 3     7 1 1 4 46 33   1 14 4 3 1 1 71 4 3 22 17 1 60 60 2
Chaos Daemons 1 64 3 2 4   1 8 83 0 60 3 1 20 60 4 40 1 1 17 71 50 62 71 4 4 58 60
Chaos Knights 2 86 2 3 4   1 17 2 50 25 60 1 2 3 2 4   60 60 3 40 78 3 60 40 57 33
Chaos Space Marines 3 33 1 4 2   4 50 50 1 63 3     67 2 2 1 3 3 33 4 67 4 3 71 3 4
Dark Angels 4 23 57 2 80   54 40 63 38 11 43 2 4 64 60 2   33 3 40 43 46 46 83 45 50 54
Death Guard 20 55 2 4 4   67 3 40 3 43 7   1 3 3 4 1   40 50 3 50 88 50 38 50 80
Deathwatch 1 4   2 1     1 1   2     1 1         1 1 2 50 1 2   20 2
Drukhari 2 2   4 3   1 80 2   4 1 1 1 40       2 2   4 83 1 4 3 2 3
Emperor’s Children 40 21 2 2 67 1 57 40 3 33 36 3 1 60 1 2 2 1 80 3 29 3 76 4 33 33 3 43
Genestealer Cults 3 43 3 1 2 1 4 4 2 2 40 3     2   1 1 3 80   2 67 2 1 4 67 2
Grey Knights 1 80 1 1 4 1 3 60 4 2 2 4     2 1   1 4 2 4 3 60   3 33 1 40
Imperial Agents 1           1 1   1   1     1 1 1   1   1 3 1 1     1  
Imperial Knights 2 20   2 2   1 1 40 3 67     2 20 3 4 1 1 2 3 3 25 2 3 3 3 2
Leagues of Votann 4 46 4 2 4 2 29 83 40 3 3 60 1 2 3 20 2   2 1 67 17 50 43 33 53 29 40
Necrons 29 53 4 4 100 1 4 29 3 67 60 50 1   57   4 1 3 33 2 29 31 3 20 30 50 50
Orks 3 47 4 4 20   3 50 60 4 57 3 2 4 3 2 3 3 3 75 71 6 47 4 4 20 60 29
Space Marines 67 60 60 4 38 4 78 23 22 33 54 50 50 17 24 33 40 1 75 40 69 41 15 57 57 30 13 20
Space Wolves 3 60 3 1 3   83 29 3 4 46 13 1 1 4 2   1 2 57 3 4 43 1 4 40 60 3
Thousand Sons 0 43 33 2     1 4 40 3 17 50 2 4 67 1 3   3 67 60 4 43 4 1 50 33 33
Tyranids 1 27 33 2 67 2 20 4 60 14 55 63   3 50 4 67   3 47 70 70 70 60 50 6 62 50
T’au Empire 43 64 40 2 33 2 40 33 43 3 50 50 80 2 3 33 1 1 3 64 50 40 88 40 67 31 7 18
World Eaters 1 50 4 4 2 1 2 40 67 4 46 20 2 3 57 2 60   2 60 17 57 80 3 67 50 73  
PER-EVENT AUDIT · 20 EVENTS
  • Wasteland Wars GT V September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Route 66 @ 2D6 Labor Day September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Armed Forces Day 2026 September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Orchard of OHNO 2026 40K GT September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Circle City Clash GT @ Who's Yer Con September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Battle of Heroes September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Capital City Showdown September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • ICE HAMMER ITC GT II - 2025/2026 September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Warhammer 40k Speedhammer Event September 5, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Pompey Pillage 2026 September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Nailhammer XII GT September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Warhammer 40,000 Grand Tournament - Epsom Downs September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Dark Sphere 40K GT - September September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Black Crow Gaming's Battle of the RAGNAR Teams of 3 GT. September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Brighton 40k Teams II September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • TBO UK September 2026 September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Midtcon Warhammer 40K Fall 2026 - Singles Tournament September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • Geneva GT III September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • The Fall of Empire 4 September 6, 2026 · players · rounds
  • NOVA Open 2026 Grand Tournament September 6, 2026 · players · rounds

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

FACTION GAMES AVG MARGIN (WIN) AVG MARGIN (LOSS) BLOWOUT % CLOSENESS %
Adepta Sororitas 105 31.5 27.7 14.3% 20%
Adeptus Custodes 241 31 25.7 17% 23.2%
Adeptus Mechanicus 89 26.3 29.7 12.4% 29.2%
Aeldari 71 27 30.4 12.7% 31%
Astra Militarum 108 25 38.2 14.8% 18.5%
Black Templars 19 20.2 28 10.5% 26.3%
Blood Angels 115 21.9 28.5 7% 33%
Chaos Daemons 144 29.6 21.7 13.9% 28.5%
Chaos Knights 124 29.2 29.8 14.5% 21%
Chaos Space Marines 110 22.3 33.9 9.1% 25.5%
Dark Angels 221 32 26.4 16.7% 17.2%
Death Guard 154 24.2 28.6 12.3% 27.3%
Deathwatch 34 24.7 29.4 11.8% 26.5%
Drukhari 60 26 30 16.7% 26.7%
Emperor’s Children 144 24.6 28.3 9.7% 22.2%
Genestealer Cults 72 28.7 25.1 19.4% 26.4%
Grey Knights 70 33.1 28.3 17.1% 21.4%
Imperial Agents 16 25.5 42.5 6.3% 12.5%
Imperial Knights 75 36 35.7 17.3% 18.7%
Leagues of Votann 158 27.3 30.8 12.7% 31%
Necrons 155 25.2 28.1 9.7% 24.5%
Orks 180 38.6 28.8 27.8% 20%
Space Marines 258 26.8 30.6 11.6% 22.9%
Space Wolves 111 35 29.7 17.1% 22.5%
T’au Empire 198 24.3 28.4 10.1% 27.3%
Thousand Sons 118 25.5 32.7 9.3% 19.5%
Tyranids 182 28.3 24.1 13.7% 23.6%
World Eaters 133 30 26.8 18.1% 26.3%

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

FACTION POP SHARE TOP-CUT SHARE OVERREP
Adepta Sororitas 3.03% 6.52% 2.15x
Adeptus Custodes 6.96% 10.87% 1.56x
Adeptus Mechanicus 2.57% 4.35% 1.69x
Aeldari 2.05% 4.35% 2.12x
Astra Militarum 3.12% 0%
Black Templars 0.55% 0%
Blood Angels 3.32% 0%
Chaos Daemons 4.16% 2.17% 0.52x
Chaos Knights 3.58% 4.35% 1.21x
Chaos Space Marines 3.17% 4.35% 1.37x
Dark Angels 6.38% 6.52% 1.02x
Death Guard 4.44% 2.17% 0.49x
Deathwatch 0.98% 2.17% 2.22x
Drukhari 1.73% 0%
Emperor’s Children 4.16% 0%
Genestealer Cults 2.08% 2.17% 1.05x
Grey Knights 2.02% 0%
Imperial Agents 0.46% 0%
Imperial Knights 2.16% 2.17% 1x
Leagues of Votann 4.56% 6.52% 1.43x
Necrons 4.47% 4.35% 0.97x
Orks 5.19% 10.87% 2.09x
Space Marines 7.45% 6.52% 0.88x
Space Wolves 3.2% 0%
T’au Empire 5.71% 2.17% 0.38x
Thousand Sons 3.41% 4.35% 1.28x
Tyranids 5.25% 4.35% 0.83x
World Eaters 3.84% 8.7% 2.27x

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

FACTION EVENTS CROSS-EVENT σ VP SCORE σ AVG MIRROR MARGIN MIRROR N
Adepta Sororitas 12 0.266 24.4 1
Adeptus Custodes 18 0.163 31.4 ±34.7 VP 11
Adeptus Mechanicus 16 0.173 29.3 1
Aeldari 10 0.207 27.5 1
Astra Militarum 13 0.213 28.6 ±29.5 VP 2
Black Templars 3 0.15 18.4 0
Blood Angels 11 0.171 27.4 ±24.6 VP 7
Chaos Daemons 12 0.169 30.2 ±22.8 VP 8
Chaos Knights 14 0.182 28.7 ±55 VP 2
Chaos Space Marines 14 0.111 30.1 1
Dark Angels 14 0.258 30.2 ±26.4 VP 11
Death Guard 16 0.167 27.7 ±30.6 VP 7
Deathwatch 6 0.271 30.7 0
Drukhari 11 0.24 25.5 1
Emperor’s Children 12 0.182 33.9 1
Genestealer Cults 11 0.128 16.6 0
Grey Knights 10 0.178 22.2 0
Imperial Agents 4 0.2 25.6 0
Imperial Knights 9 0.162 24.8 1
Leagues of Votann 15 0.165 28.7 1
Necrons 19 0.168 34.2 ±14.5 VP 2
Orks 17 0.179 31 ±25.5 VP 6
Space Marines 16 0.129 28.4 ±31.8 VP 15
Space Wolves 14 0.195 23.8 1
T’au Empire 15 0.163 29.9 ±23.6 VP 7
Thousand Sons 14 0.118 30.2 1
Tyranids 14 0.175 31.3 ±15.5 VP 6
World Eaters 15 0.189 31.6 0

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

FACTION GAMES R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 Δ ROUND
Adepta Sororitas 105 45% 68.4% 47.4% 55% 27.8% 33.3% 100% 100% 0% -17.2 pp
Adeptus Custodes 241 45.1% 58% 50% 56.1% 65% 33.3% 33.3% 50% 0% +19.9 pp
Adeptus Mechanicus 89 53.3% 18.8% 50% 73.3% 41.2% 100% 0% 100% 100% -12.2 pp
Aeldari 71 26.7% 21.4% 57.1% 58.3% 58.3% 0% +31.7 pp
Astra Militarum 108 47.4% 45% 36.4% 58.8% 47.1% 0% 33.3% 100% 75% -0.3 pp
Black Templars 19 66.7% 75% 66.7% 66.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Blood Angels 115 53.9% 47.8% 61.9% 17.4% 35.3% 0% -18.5 pp
Chaos Daemons 144 47.8% 53.6% 53.9% 37% 60% 50% 50% 100% +12.2 pp
Chaos Knights 124 61.5% 50% 54.2% 54.6% 50% 0% 0% 100% 0% -11.5 pp
Chaos Space Marines 110 63.6% 45.5% 65% 42.9% 63.2% -0.5 pp
Dark Angels 221 52.6% 55% 46.5% 43.2% 56.8% 66.7% 40% 60% 60% +4.1 pp
Death Guard 154 51.9% 37.5% 53.3% 55.2% 37% 50% 100% 50% 0% -14.8 pp
Deathwatch 34 50% 60% 37.5% 71.4% 50% 100% 100% 0% 100%
Drukhari 60 75% 66.7% 40% 55.6% 54.6% 100% 0% 0% -20.4 pp
Emperor’s Children 144 51.7% 31% 46.2% 44.8% 46.2% 100% -5.6 pp
Genestealer Cults 72 76.9% 75% 57.1% 66.7% 41.7% 0% 0% 100% 100% -35.3 pp
Grey Knights 70 53.9% 50% 38.5% 35.7% 61.5% +7.7 pp
Imperial Agents 16 33.3% 100% 75% 0% 33.3%
Imperial Knights 75 29.4% 43.8% 53.9% 28.6% 46.2% 0% +16.7 pp
Leagues of Votann 158 60% 25% 56% 55.6% 53.9% 0% 57.1% 28.6% 16.7% -6.1 pp
Necrons 155 53.6% 41.4% 51.9% 42.3% 44.4% 50% 50% 100% 0% -9.1 pp
Orks 180 54.8% 75.8% 48.5% 54.6% 53.3% 100% 33.3% 33.3% 66.7% -1.5 pp
Space Marines 258 51% 43.1% 34.7% 44.2% 47.8% 100% 0% 100% 66.7% -3.1 pp
Space Wolves 111 39.1% 47.8% 36.4% 75% 31.8% -7.3 pp
T’au Empire 198 40% 62.5% 65.7% 50% 40% 50% 62.5% 16.7% 16.7% +0 pp
Thousand Sons 118 28.6% 55% 38.1% 40% 47.4% 75% 75% 25% 66.7% +18.8 pp
Tyranids 182 50% 44.4% 51.5% 56.3% 72.7% 40% 75% 25% 66.7% +22.7 pp
World Eaters 133 36% 58.3% 65.2% 56.5% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% +14 pp
PROTOCOL · INTERACTIVE TOOL

DISPOSITION EXPLORER

Pivot the faction → detachment → Force Disposition data four ways — which posture wins for a build, which builds win a posture, and the army-agnostic disposition×disposition and disposition-agnostic build×build matchups. Every view carries a plain-language verdict that is gated on the sample: a leader is named only when its 95% interval clears the rest, never by sorting and crowning.

Faction×detachment×disposition is roughly 1,300 cells; even a healthy season spreads only a few thousand games across them. This tool is built so the uncertainty is the most visible thing on screen — it refuses to declare findings the sample can’t support. On reading these limits, see What the Numbers Can Bear and Six Bins.

Lens
Format
Thin cells
30
Sort by
 

Win rates are the Archive’s own first-party measurement from the weekly tournament pull — not republished aggregator tables. Verdicts come from confidence-interval separation only; no p-values. The build×disposition data (the BUILD → DISP and DISP → BUILD lenses) begins with the first post-11th-edition pull on Friday 3 July 2026.

TWO-ELO RATING SYSTEM · PROVISIONAL
ELO ratings are provisional. Built from 11 tournament pulls since the current dataslate — 7546 of 8263 players are still inside their provisional rating period. Read the ordering as early-stage, not a settled skill ladder; ratings stabilise as pulls accumulate. Running raw and performance-adjusted — the ladder is a two-rating system on first-party tournament results.
RAW Performance against other players, regardless of faction.
PERF-ADJ Net of the factions’ observed strength this season — the Performance composite.
Faction premium = adjusted − raw. Positive (adjusted above raw): the player is exceeding what their faction predicts — a skill signal. Negative: the faction is doing the lifting. This is the “is it the player or the army?” read.

BIGGEST SKILL PREMIUM

PERF-ADJ FURTHEST ABOVE RAW · THE GENUINE SKILL SIGNAL

    BIGGEST FACTION LIFT

    PERF-ADJ FURTHEST BELOW RAW · FACTION DOING THE LIFTING

      TOP-50 LEADERBOARD · EDITION 11E

      CLICK A RATING HEADER TO SORT · CLICK A NAME FOR ITS RATING NEIGHBORS · DEFAULT: RAW ↓
      # PLAYER RAW PERF-ADJ P-PREMIUM G RECENT FACTIONS