MFM
BSData v10.6.0 ▲27 ▼23
COVERAGE
THROUGH 2026-06-05 FRESH
EVENTS
27 · 2026-W23
GAMES
2561
WHERE THE FOUR SIGNALS AGREE AND DISAGREE
WHERE EACH SIGNAL RANKS EACH FACTION
TIE-AWARE COMPETITION RANKING · SPREAD = MAX RANK − MIN RANK
| FACTION | T-RANK | P-RANK | R-RANK | A-RANK | SPREAD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Militarum | 26 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 25 |
| Deathwatch | 27 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 25 |
| Orks | 24 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 24 |
| Dark Angels | 3 | 24 | 11 | 25 | 22 |
| Space Wolves | 18 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 22 |
| T’au Empire | 22 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 22 |
| Chaos Knights | 1 | 17 | 11 | 20 | 19 |
| Black Templars | 5 | 23 | 20 | 6 | 18 |
| Chaos Daemons | 25 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 18 |
| Chaos Space Marines | 10 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18 |
| Leagues of Votann | 13 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 18 |
| Grey Knights | 19 | 27 | 25 | 10 | 17 |
| Adeptus Custodes | 4 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 15 |
| World Eaters | 7 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 15 |
| Blood Angels | 16 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| Emperor’s Children | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 |
| Imperial Knights | 2 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| Thousand Sons | 9 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 |
| Aeldari | 14 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| Space Marines | 17 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| Genestealer Cults | 28 | 18 | 26 | 26 | 10 |
| Necrons | 15 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Tyranids | 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| Adepta Sororitas | 21 | 21 | 20 | 13 | 8 |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 20 | 14 | 22 | 16 | 8 |
| Drukhari | 12 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 5 |
| Imperial Agents | 23 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 5 |
| Death Guard | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
Bigger spread — more disagreement between signals about that faction. The biggest spreads at the top are where the editorial questions live.
WHERE THE SIGNALS DISAGREE
THEORY vs PERFORMANCE · RANK DIFFERENCE
OVER-PERFORMING
T27 · P2
Theory averages across the entire Deathwatch codex including narrow Kill Team formations and rarely-played detachments; matched-play data is dominated by curated competitive lists whose math the population average dilutes.
T25 · P7
Theory's per-point average is pulled down by the codex's many narrow-purpose units; tournament results favor specific list builds whose synergies the population math doesn't model.
T22 · P5
Theory's roster average is dragged by legacy firepower platforms with weak per-point math; competitive results favor specific detachment + weapon-platform combinations that the population math doesn't isolate.
UNDER-PERFORMING
T3 · P24
Theory's per-point math favors elite-infantry datasheets, but the broader meta is structurally exposed to anti-elite list construction; the gap between datasheet ceiling and field outcomes is largest where the meta has adapted most.
T5 · P23
Theory's per-point math credits the chapter's Crusader squads, but competitive results are tied to specific charge + chaplain detachment configurations the population average dilutes.
T1 · P17
Knight-chassis math sits at the top of the population average; the gap to Performance reflects the thin-roster structural limit — fewer list variations means opponents can prep specifically for the pieces in play.
Divergence is faction-rank difference between Theory and Performance orderings. Hover the Δ value for z-score detail.
WEEK-OVER-WEEK MOVEMENT
PERFORMANCE PULL · WR DELTA
DOWN
HOW TO READ QUANTUM
Quantum is the Archive’s measurement layer — what the data says about the game, before anyone interprets it.
- Theory (the Datasheet Analysis tab) — what a faction can do on paper (datasheet strength, matched-play filtered).
- Performance (this tab) — what it has actually done at tournaments (aggregated event win rates).
- Practice (surfaces on the Tier List) — what top players rate it (curated tier-list verdicts).
- Attention (the Signals tab’s A-RANK column) — what the community is watching (search and video engagement).
The dashboard measures — that is the Archivist. Interpretation lives on Awakenings — that is the Editor. Weigh them as separate acts. When the four signals agree on a faction, that’s a confident read; when they disagree, the disagreement is the editorial product, not a bug.
- Results — tournament outcomes; win-rate cells carry a Wilson 95% CI bar (wider band = smaller sample, less certainty).
- Signals — cross-signal comparison: where the four measurements agree and disagree.
- Datasheet Analysis — paper strength: the matched-play unit ceiling. Panel archetypes are defined in the Glossary.
- ELO — player ratings in three variants (raw, theory-adjusted, performance-adjusted).
- Tier List ↗ — the headline four-signal verdict, at its own page: the Strength Index.
VITAL SIGNS · COLUMN REFRESH STATUS
THEORY
2026-05-29
FRESH · 17D AGO
PERFORMANCE
2026-06-03
AGING · 12D AGO
PRACTICE
2026-05-19
FRESH · 27D AGO
ATTENTION
2026-05-31
AGING · 15D AGO
DIGEST
2026-06-07
FRESH · 8D AGO
TOP WIN RATE
59.4% Chaos Space Marines
z +1.79 · CI [54–64.7]
STEEPEST CLIMB
+6.6pp Leagues of Votann
w/w · Adeptus Mechanicus +6
SHARPEST DROP
-11.8pp Grey Knights
w/w · Genestealer Cults -7.6
LATE-GAME LEADER
+32.9pp Adeptus Mechanicus
round Δ · climbs late
HIDDEN GEM
Deathwatch 58.1%
N=68 · 1.4% field share
SHARPEST SPLIT
Deathwatch T27 / P2
25-rank cross-source divergence
FACTION PERFORMANCE
STAT:
| # | FACTION | WIN RATE · 95% CI | REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE | ROUND Δ · ATTRITION | Δ W/W | N | Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaos Space Marines |
59.4%
[54–64.7]
6.6%
-13.6pp
|
-2 | 332 | +1.79 | ||
| 2 | Deathwatch |
58.1%
[45.7–69.5]
1.4%
+8.3pp
|
· | 68 | +1.55 | ||
| 3 | Chaos Daemons |
55.5%
[45.7–64.8]
2.1%
-14pp
|
· | 107 | +1.1 | ||
| 4 | Drukhari |
55.3%
[45.7–64.6]
2.1%
+23pp
|
+4.1 | 105 | +1.08 | ||
| 5 | Emperor’s Children |
55.1%
[48.8–61.1]
5.1%
-15.3pp
|
· | 256 | +1.03 | ||
| 6 | Necrons |
53.6%
[47.4–59.6]
5.2%
+4.4pp
|
· | 260 | +0.77 | ||
| 7 | Leagues of Votann |
53.2%
[43.9–62.3]
2.2%
-7.4pp
|
+6.6 | 110 | +0.71 | ||
| 8 | Orks |
53.2%
[46.6–59.7]
4.4%
+11pp
|
+5.5 | 219 | +0.71 | ||
| 9 | Thousand Sons |
52.8%
[45.5–60.1]
3.7%
-11.2pp
|
· | 184 | +0.65 | ||
| 10 | T’au Empire |
52.6%
[46.4–58.7]
5.2%
+14.6pp
|
-2.7 | 259 | +0.61 | ||
| 11 | Death Guard |
52.4%
[46–58.8]
4.8%
-9.1pp
|
+2.9 | 239 | +0.57 | ||
| 12 | Tyranids |
51.5%
[45.6–57.3]
5.7%
-9.6pp
|
+4.2 | 283 | +0.41 | ||
| 13 | Adeptus Mechanicus |
51.4%
[40–62.7]
1.4%
+32.9pp
|
+6 | 72 | +0.4 | ||
| 14 | Space Marines |
49.1%
[44.7–53.5]
10.2%
+12.6pp
|
· | 510 | +0 |
| # | FACTION | WIN RATE · 95% CI | REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE | ROUND Δ · ATTRITION | Δ W/W | N | Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aeldari |
48.4%
[40.6–56.2]
3.2%
-4pp
|
+4.6 | 159 | -0.12 | ||
| 16 | Astra Militarum |
48.1%
[42.7–53.6]
6.6%
+6.7pp
|
-2.4 | 332 | -0.17 | ||
| 17 | Genestealer Cults |
47.8%
[36.5–59.4]
1.5%
-27.6pp
|
-7.6 | 73 | -0.22 | ||
| 18 | Blood Angels |
47.7%
[40–55.6]
3.2%
-4.5pp
|
+2.7 | 158 | -0.24 | ||
| 19 | Black Templars |
47.4%
[36.5–58.5]
1.6%
+12.8pp
|
· | 79 | -0.3 | ||
| 20 | Chaos Knights |
46.4%
[37.3–55.7]
2.3%
+5.7pp
|
· | 114 | -0.47 | ||
| 21 | Imperial Knights |
46.2%
[39.4–53.2]
4.1%
+18.1pp
|
-2.7 | 205 | -0.49 | ||
| 22 | Adepta Sororitas |
44.7%
[35.4–54.3]
2.1%
+14.9pp
|
· | 106 | -0.76 | ||
| 23 | World Eaters |
44.4%
[37–52.1]
3.3%
+8.2pp
|
· | 166 | -0.8 | ||
| 24 | Adeptus Custodes |
44.4%
[38.1–50.8]
4.7%
-7.3pp
|
-5.2 | 233 | -0.82 | ||
| 25 | Dark Angels |
43.3%
[35.4–51.5]
2.9%
-5.8pp
|
· | 144 | -1.01 | ||
| 26 | Space Wolves |
40.5%
[32.2–49.4]
2.5%
-9.3pp
|
-5.3 | 123 | -1.48 | ||
| 27 | Imperial Agents |
37.5%
[13.7–69.4]
0.2%
—
|
+3 | 8 | -2 | ||
| 28 | Grey Knights |
34.7%
[25.9–44.7]
1.9%
+9.2pp
|
-11.8 | 97 | -2.48 |
MATCHUP MATRIX
CHAOS
DEATH
CHAOS
DRUKH
EMPER
NECRO
LEAGU
ORKS
THOUS
T’AU
DEATH
TYRAN
CHAOS
50
60
56
69
44
80
35
100
73
53
60
DEATH
50
33
75
0
60
50
100
50
33
100
0
CHAOS
40
67
100
60
40
75
40
50
33
67
25
DRUKH
44
25
0
40
60
100
100
38
50
33
43
EMPER
25
100
40
40
23
55
40
56
64
40
45
NECRO
56
20
60
40
69
43
43
29
43
36
69
LEAGU
20
50
25
0
45
57
60
50
25
50
50
ORKS
65
0
60
0
60
57
40
70
30
62
21
THOUS
0
17
50
63
33
71
50
30
67
64
54
T’AU
27
67
33
50
36
57
75
60
22
64
46
DEATH
47
0
33
67
60
64
25
38
36
27
38
TYRAN
36
100
75
57
55
31
50
79
46
54
52
COVERAGE
2026-06-05
VIDEO
2026-06-05
VIDEO
2026-06-04
VIDEO
UNIT-CEILING SIGNAL · STRENGTH INDEX
STRENGTH INDEX BUCKETS
EVERY FACTION · STRONGER / AVERAGE / WEAKER
STRONGER
n=6
AVERAGE
n=18
WEAKER
n=4
FACTION SIGNAL BREAKDOWN
PICK A FACTION · SEE ITS FOUR Z-SCORES
THE THEORY DATASET · BY THE NUMBERS
FACTIONS
28
UNITS
1003
ENHANCEMENTS
778
RELEASES TRACKED
1
THREE-ELO RATING SYSTEM · PROVISIONAL
RAW
Performance against other players, regardless of faction.
THEORY-ADJ
Net of the theoretical ceiling of the factions the player chose — the BSData-derived Output and Durability ceiling per unit.
PERF-ADJ
Net of the factions’ observed strength this season — the Performance composite.
Faction premium = adjusted − raw. Positive (adjusted above raw): the player is exceeding what their faction predicts — a skill signal. Negative: the faction is doing the lifting. This is the “is it the player or the army?” read.
BIGGEST SKILL PREMIUM
PERF-ADJ FURTHEST ABOVE RAW · THE GENUINE SKILL SIGNAL
BIGGEST FACTION LIFT
PERF-ADJ FURTHEST BELOW RAW · FACTION DOING THE LIFTING
TOP-50 LEADERBOARD · EDITION 10E
CLICK A RATING HEADER TO SORT · DEFAULT: RAW ↓
| # | PLAYER | RAW ↓ | THEORY-ADJ | PERF-ADJ | T-PREMIUM | P-PREMIUM | G | RECENT FACTIONS |
|---|