EDITORIAL NOTE

Warhammer 40,000 11th edition launches Saturday 20 June 2026. The Archive is pausing weekly data ingestion (Performance pulls, ELO updates, Attention snapshots) through the transition and resuming with the first post-launch competitive weekend. Existing W23 data remains visible on every signal; the next data cycle lands the week of 3 July 2026, capturing tournaments held on 27–28 June — the first competitive weekend of 11th edition play. The Editor is using the gap for site refinements.

MATRIX › TOOLS › PAIRINGS TOOL

PAIRINGS TOOL

Compute the blind-written ceiling for an 8v8 (WTC) or 5v5 (regional and team-open) round — the best total rating one captain could reach if they placed all the pairings themselves, in one shot, with no opponent response. Each cell is a captain's read of a matchup on the five-point scale (−2 to +2) used in WTC prep. The tool finds the assignment-optimal pairing, compares it to alternatives, and tells you how robust the call is to your matchup estimates being off.
This is an upper bound, not a WTC simulation. Real WTC pairings are set across three sequential captain pushes — secret defender, attacker pair, refusal — and no single captain controls the assignment. The ceiling computed here is rarely reachable in practice; the WTC three-push sequential solver that models the actual captain dance is the v1 work.

TEAM A · YOUR TEAM

SELECT N LISTS

MATCHUP MATRIX

CAPTAIN'S READ · WTC-STYLE RATING · ★ = CEILING ASSIGNMENT
WINDOW FIRST-PARTY MATCHUP PULL · OPT-IN
↓ TEAM A LISTS TEAM B LISTS →
−2 VERY BAD Strong underdog — need variance to win ≈ % win
−1 BAD Underdog — uphill but playable ≈ % win
 0 EVEN Coin flip — anyone's game ≈ % win
+1 GOOD Favored — should win more often ≈ % win
+2 VERY GOOD Strong favorite — should rarely lose ≈ % win
► The −2 to +2 scale is how most captains think about matchups. The percentages above are a captain-editable mapping — your own sense of what each rating means in win-probability terms. Defaults are 30 / 40 / 50 / 60 / 70; edit any cell and the matrix's per-cell % hint and the baseline overlay both refresh against your curve. Not data-fitted — the tool does not capture outcomes to fit against.

TEAM B · OPPONENT

SELECT N LISTS

OPTIMAL ASSIGNMENT

ASSIGNMENT-OPTIMAL CEILING · BLIND-WRITTEN PROTOCOL
TOTAL MATCHUP RATING
+5/ +8 MAX
Calibrated win-probability sum: 2.50 / 4 (62.5% implied team win rate).

ALTERNATIVES

NEXT BEST · NAIVE · WORST

SENSITIVITY

HOW ROBUST IS THE CALL
SMALLEST FLIP
±1RATING STEP
A single matchup re-rated by this much flips the optimal assignment. Dashed cells are most fragile.
CLASSIFICATION
MODERATELY ROBUST
A robust call holds under reasonable mis-estimation. A brittle one flips on a small rating change.

PAIRING PROTOCOL — WHAT THIS MODE COMPUTES

EXPLAINER · TOGGLE LIVES IN THE TOOLBAR
Blind / Ceiling: the assignment-optimal upper bound — the best total rating one captain could reach if they placed all the pairings themselves, in one shot, with no opponent response. This is the right answer under a true blind-written protocol; under any other protocol, the ceiling is rarely reachable. Hungarian-style optimization against your stated ratings.
► WTC Sequential models the three-push captain dance that real WTC rounds use — secret defender, attacker pair, refusal, repeated three times. 8v8 only. The reading flips: instead of a single best assignment, the tool recommends a Push-1 defender and reports each defender's worst-case round value (RowMin).

PRESETS

FROM THE DECISION ARCHIVE

SAVED MATRICES

LOCAL TO THIS BROWSER · localStorage
DECISION AID · NOT DECISION

This tool surfaces what your matchup ratings imply. If your reads are noisy — and pre-event matchup estimates almost always are — the optimal assignment is noisy too. Always read the sensitivity readout. A brittle "optimal" that flips on a single rating step is barely an optimal at all; in real play, a captain with good intuition for the opposing player's style or an information edge will outperform a captain who blindly trusts a math-optimal pairing built on shaky inputs. Use this tool to surface and stress-test your reasoning, not to replace it.