EDITORIAL NOTE

Warhammer 40,000 11th edition launches Saturday 20 June 2026. The Archive is pausing weekly data ingestion (Performance pulls, ELO updates, Attention snapshots) through the transition and resuming with the first post-launch competitive weekend. Existing W23 data remains visible on every signal; the next data cycle lands the week of 3 July 2026, capturing tournaments held on 27–28 June — the first competitive weekend of 11th edition play. The Editor is using the gap for site refinements.

DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION

DAMAGE CALCULATOR

Multiple weapon profiles into one shared defender. Exact distribution, the per-profile breakdown, and the points-efficiency view — not just “on average.”

The interactive companion to On Average. Build a full attack from several weapon profiles at once, fold in modifiers, re-rolls, −1 damage, and Feel No Pain, and see the full exact distribution — mean, median, mode — for the whole attack. The math is exact: no Monte Carlo. The Archive holds no datasheet or points database; you type every value off your own datasheet / MFM and the tool stays on the right side of the IP line.

SETUP

DEFENDER · SHARED ACROSS ALL PROFILES

Effective save after AP (or invuln if better). 7+ = no save.
Empty / 7+ = no FNP. 5+ = ignore on 5+.
Floor 1. 0 = no reduction.
POINTS (optional · for the trade-ratio view)
The whole target unit's MFM cost.
Drives the points-trade ratio.
WEAPON PROFILES
How to read this: every field is a value you read straight off your datasheet / MFM. The save above is your effective save AFTER the weapon's AP — or your invulnerable save if it's better. Modifiers are capped at ±1 per the 10th-edition core rules; the calculator clamps anything past that. Want to add a second weapon? Hit + ADD PROFILE.
DISTRIBUTION · COMBINED
Mode Median Mean
MODE
—
the most likely single value
MEDIAN
—
50/50 line
MEAN (EV)
—
the long-run average
THRESHOLD
P(DAMAGE ≥ )
PROBABILITY THIS ATTACK CLEARS THE THRESHOLD
—
—
Adjust the threshold to read off any “at-least” probability. On Average explains why the “on average” reading is often only a coin flip.
BREAKDOWN · PER PROFILE
POINTS EFFICIENCY
WHY THIS NUMBER IS EXACT

The distribution is computed by probability convolution and dynamic programming — not by Monte Carlo simulation. The hit, wound, save, damage, and allocation stages are explicit; B.1 keywords (the ±1 hit / wound modifiers, the four standard re-rolls, −1 damage with the 10th-edition floor of 1, and Feel No Pain N+) compose without crit-stream splitting, so the per-attack unsaved probability stays a clean single number and the unsaved-wound count is exactly Binomial(A, q). The total damage is a compound sum of the per-wound damage distribution; the models-destroyed view is the no-spillover allocation DP. Multiple profiles convolve their damage and chain through one allocation DP. Every probability the chart shows is exact to floating-point precision.

The current build (Phase B.1) covers the non-critical keywords. The critical-interaction keywords — Sustained Hits, Lethal Hits, Devastating Wounds, Anti-X — remain for Phase B.2 (the staged pipeline is built to host them without another refactor).

The math is independently verified by npm run verify:damage against scripts/damage_phase_b_reference.py — two implementations of the same algorithm cross-checking each other on every commit, plus a regression cross-check against scripts/on_average_examples.py (the Phase A reference the On Average article cites).